First, I sincerely appreciate the thorough well thought out response.
You provided a lot of math so let me try to simplify this with a political opinion polling analogy (representative sampling for directional learning). We all hear/read about these on TV, newspaper, websites and the leaders of our nation leverage them for direction, trending, and decision making.
If there are roughly 2,500 national polls conducted each year and each poll contacts 1,000 participants then only 2,500,000 of the nation's 200 million adults get to participate each year. That would represent 1.25% sampling - representative sample. Of course, within that sampling you'd want mixture of age, race, sex, etc... to continue representative sampling.
So, back to pinball. If you were exploring interest in a video mode for pinball machines, using your working assumptions Stern's AC/DC sold over 7,000 units. Using our representative sampling we would only need to talk to 88 (I rounded up) or 1.25% of the owners to gauge their opinion with diversity in the sample.
Moving on to the 1M who have given the game more of a glance. Quick math would equate that to needing to touch 12,500 people. As I know this number was a SWAG assumption, I would also submit that glancing bystanders at public locations are typically a much smaller percentage playing pinball on location. There would need to be a % accounted for pinball enthusiasts/hobbyists, number of repeat games on said machines to drill this number down more. But why continue this math exercise?
I maintain that a representative sampling on pinside is valid for opinion polling. Could it/should it be augmented by general glancing players to increase sampling, sure have at it. Do you have a economical way to do this? If you wanted to, sure with online survey software and a database partner to segment users. Will the industry take the time to do this, very likely not. But like a good debate, let's not get distracted by statistics that complicate topics, but back to a more logical argument.
Will a glancing customer care about deep code, tournament scoring or wizard modes? I'll take a swag and say no. Will a glancing customer say wow, look at that machine theme, the lights, the bells and whistles. I'll take a swag and say yes. Now will that glancing customer see someone playing a guitar hero (example only) video mode in color LCD while walking by and say cool a game within a game. My swag is yes.
Back to owners, I think we've maintained that they are largely ones who care about deep code, wizard modes, video modes oh and always bling. So based on my math, we have a good chance of polling those owners on pinside.
Quoted from pinball_keefer:Whereas I understand the point you are trying to make, making a video mode ONLY affects the Gantt charts for coding/video (dmd) art, and not for anything else. So, no other resources you're going to use to do anything else on the game like cab art, bling, mods, whatever are affected by the inclusion of a video mode. Only pinball rules.
Trying to understand this point so if it went over my head, sincerely apologize. My point is whether it's a topper, side rails or code - they all cost money and factor into the costs. Code is largely dollars & days as I like to simplify summarizing it. Is your point video modes increase the pinball rules development and thus the timeline of overall game delivery? I get that. But to a Product Manager it's still in it's simplest form dollars and days. If I'm missing something please advise not trying to be sarcastic.
Quoted from pinball_keefer:I would argue that video modes, especially if easily accessible, are of the utmost confusion to casuals. Sure they might figure it out after a few tries, but I went through an event that made a very lasting impression on me and changed pretty significantly how I thought about any kind of player interaction that didn't involve the flippers.
Again, respect your experience and opinion. The other side of that quarter are the number of casual family members and players I've witnessed who encounter video modes on games like IJ and AFM. The first time they see it they are not sure what to do - agreed. But they almost always turn to me or tell me after, that is SO (emphasizing so) cool!! It's the unexpected surprise that excites them. I've even had kids in my gameroom say "How do you get that video mode again to shoot at the bar?".
What surprises me is pinsiders that have responded to the poll so far in this thread are in favor of video modes too. I would have thought I was in the minority since people who own games would tire of them or are more purists. I'm of the segment that grew up in arcades with pinball. Not pinball with arcade games - so the combo is great to me. But if the industry is trying to pull more people into pinball, the "wow, so cool" effect is what I thought you'd be after. Not super super wizard mode (which I respect).