I think your assumption is very likely.
I haven't done this often, but after I no longer have anymore fingernails left to scratch my head,
I've put a bolt in the fuse holder and looked where it first start smoking. This is highly "NOT"
recommended, but best, with all the plugins unplugged like you have, and with the machine itself
unplugged but the toggle switch on, you can have a Friend with the power cord plug in one hand,
and a plugged in extension cord in the other, and as soon as your Friend plugs in the machine, he
consentrates primarily on the Relay Bank, and you the rest of the bottom board, and as soon as
a puff of smoke is seen, the machine gets unplugged, with your Friend always ready in an instint
to unplug it. I've done this alone with no problems and your machine won't burn up, but I suggest
having a Friend along so any further wire damage doesn't take place. Even if it's contacts that's not
suppose to be touching, that's where it will fist start burning..
This might be the only time I've suggested this without being on sight..
But before you do that, if the coin mech is still attached, had you checked the Coin Reject Coil
at the lower right front inside the coffin? If the coin mech has been takin' out, maybe checking any
Coin Mechs loose wires in that area. If some are (taped) together, you might want to separate them
and then turn on the machine and see what happens..