Quoted from DudeRegular:
Fair enough. The post I was referencing had it listed as such. I see the website is a bit different. Spreadsheet doesn't really change data-wise. I updated the headers and put in a description at the bottom. Hopefully its useful for someone.
[This will be a lengthy post.]
Thanks for providing that spreadsheet. It should prove a useful guide to potential bidders.
Before I get into some comment on the MoP auction, some general observations.
1) Unless a game is rare and hard to find (in reasonably good condition, whatever your standards for that may be), pins are not that hard to buy -- provided you have the scratch. When the time comes that you need to sell them however, probably a very different story, unless you are willing to take a dive on the selling price. Little about selling it will be easy. (If your experience turns out to be otherwise, I salute you.)
2) Pins are prone to boom and bust cycles. (Over enough time, you've probably seen this for yourself.) To most outward appearance, at the moment we are in the Boom. If you paid significantly more than you should have for a pin, chances are very good that when you go to sell it in 2 years or in 5 or 8, you will end up taking that dive, and not approach the money you put into it.
3) Despite the vaunted "resurgence of Pinball" of recent years, the uptick in pin "museums", arcades, barcades & etc. -- those that managed not to fold under the pandemic, that is -- we remain a niche community. 90-some % of the people you pass on the street in your city don't know or care about pinball. A random sampling of those people may turn up the occasional comment of "Yeah, it would be cool to own one." I've heard this many times, probably you have too. But how many of those casual commenters would actually pull the trigger on buying one ? There are still operators who will buy inventory, but side note: bowling alleys anywhere near me have all but gone extinct during the pandemic. Restaurants and bars haven't fared too well either.
4) The valuations we see in looking up the specs on many games at Pinside seem to be on the low end, not up to date.
5) A lot of prices are up -- I get that. Just refilled a prescription and it was triple what I paid last November. That's inexcusable.
Back to the spreadsheet. Examples: A DMD that turns up in tournaments sometimes. It didn't enjoy a high production #, but I wouldn't consider it a particular favorite among pinfans. (No, I'm choosing not to name it.) Pinside lists a high value on this game of around $4,500. Almost certainly too low though, by today's real world selling prices. I've never seen that famous (and controversial) price list you had to pay for, but the BostonPinballBiz spreadsheet of historical eBay sales shows a high end of the price range at $5,000. That won't reflect a real world price *today*, either. So, let's guesstimate that the MoP auction closed it at $7,000. (Wouldn't shock me if that proved too low a guess.) Take that to the right edge of the thread Post #451 spreadsheet, and you're at $8,800. A friend of mine in the hobby who has rather different game preferences than I do is likely to say "Forget it ! I can get the latest Stern NIB for less than that. And it won't have the same extent of maintenance issues !" But maybe he's a bit offbase when it comes to what current Sterns NIB are costing ?
Next case. I can picture another, more highly desired DMD closing in the 12K to 15K range. (That may not even shed as many potential bidders as you might at first think.) By the time you get to the right edge of that spreadsheet, you're possibly looking at over 18K. That's where I really have to stop and wonder. I've seen and played an example of this very same pin that was beautifully, most impressively restored by a near-legendary pin restorer, whose name unfortunately escapes me just now. His work always commanded a premium price. Paying 18K for *his* version of this DMD, which had been in a primarily HUO environment where it got star treatment, might not be a ridiculous conversation. But compare that with paying 18K for the MoP edition, which has been subjected to who knows what for how long, and repaired an unknown number of times ? Does that still compute for you ?
And finally, it will be very interesting to see which pins may get withheld from the auction -- for whatever reasons, which we may never know. There were titles I'd never seen anywhere else. For example, would you even consider buying that "Aliens" widebody ? I don't know whether the code for it ever got finished before the company went bust, but I never saw that game in action without certain features being broken, and with it acting up in weird ways.