I've been reading this post and have a few thoughts. I work for an electric utility as a distribution engineer so I've seen more than my fair share of damaged equipment. That being said, here my thoughts:
1. A whole home surge protector is a pretty good investment. It won't prevent damage in every case, but it is pretty cheap insurance and will probably be more than adequate for most homes.
2. The 80/20 split of voltage transients originating in the home/voltage transients from utility could be accurate. However, in most cases, the voltage transients originating from outside the home have a much higher probability of causing damage due to higher voltage transients. Lightning is the most common source of damaging voltage transients. Other sources of voltage transients include utility/transmission line switching, capacitor bank switching, induction on lines from nearby faults, and other utility customers causing transients. In most states, it is the end customer who is responsible for providing protection for their electronics and appliances.
3. There was a question about how a current in-rush can cause a voltage spike. This can occur due to how most residential electrical services are constructed. Utilities use a split winding transformer to provide both 120 Volt service and 240 Volt service.
The winding in the transformer is 240 Volts. The utility will tap a neutral at the mid-point of the 240 volt winding and provide three wires to the customer (2 insulated 120V wires and 1 neutral wire). When taking voltage measurements, the two 120 volt wires are 180 degrees out of phase from each other. Therefore, when you measure with a voltmeter across the two 120 volt wires, you will measure 240 volts and when you measure from each 120 volt wire to the neutral, you will read 120 volts.
Now, when you have a 120 volt load in your house, lets say a coffee maker, you have current flowing from the 120 volt "hot" wire, through the resistor in the coffee maker heater element, and flowing back through the neutral to complete the circuit. We know from Ohm's law, that current flowing through a resistor will cause a voltage drop. Depending on the wire size of the neutral wire, you will have a voltage drop across the neutral wire when the current is flowing. Where this causes a voltage spike is on the other 120 volt circuit. Since the two 120 volt circuits are 180 degrees out of phase, a voltage drop on the neutral for one 120 volt circuit will cause a voltage raise of the same magnitude on the other circuit. If the coffee maker kicking on causes a 10 volt drop (which you may see as your lights flickering), it will cause the other circuit to have a 10 volt rise, up to 130 volts. Small wire or poor neutral connections can make this the voltage rise very significant (I've seen over 180 volts in some cases, although this is rare).
Good luck with your decision.