I just discovered this post. It started out with questions about market saturation, turned into a conversation about the government tax grab, and pin pricing, in general.

Now here lately, we are seeing all of the Silicon Valley companies laying off people right and left. Facebook ( or Meta ), Google, and others chopping headcount. These companies hiring actions over the last few years drove up rents in San Fransisco and other areas and put people on the streets living in tents. It is going to be interesting to see how all of these newly laid off workers make their rent going forward. Or will rents start coming down in San Fransisco?

Next up, we have this banking business going on. Unless it is different this time, there could be further repercussions. The govvies are still trying to figure out how to deal with U.S. banking. Do we leave FDIC at $250,000.00 account insurance? Or do we insure all deposits, even for all the rich guys? And on and on. Are there more shoes to drop?

I am starting to read about layoffs here and layoffs over here. And more over there. At some point, people getting laid off start looking to raise cash by selling off any marketable item they can sell ( I have been down this road myself). You need a couch to sit on. You need a refrigerator. You need food and toiletries. What you don't need are guitars, extra cars, and pinball machines. The rest of the stuff you have laying around the house is not worth the time it takes to sell it.

I bought my first pin in 2012. Four years after the 2008 banking crisis/real estate prices killed the global economy. Since 2012, with Helicopter Ben Bernanke's cash machine pumping the economy at zero interest rates, prices for pinball machines have been on an upward trajectory.

The days of free money from The Fed are over. Interest rates are going up? How high? Who knows? But I lived thru Paul Volker's 18%-22% interest rates. Inflation is front page news---again---after 40 years.

My question: How long, how deep, does a recession have to get before pinball prices start taking heat?

EDIT: This is the article that prompted me to come here and risk the wrath of Crazy Levi

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/22/business/indeed-layoffs

"Job listing website Indeed.com will cut approximately 2,200 employees, representing almost 15% of its total workforce, the company announced Wednesday."

I'd be looking for a game shaped like a Javelin so I could blast a tank. Pop it like a cork

fuck the tank. I want the lunch box

https://www.knapparcade.org/post/details-on-american-pinball-s-new-game-galactic-tank-force

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Your game room is bigger than my house.

But it has been growing and I would rather it would not.

Have to drive 30 miles north to Newton to board Amtrack. I think that is a long drive, but in Dallas, everything is a 30 mile drive

Ahh…that would be a hog or a cow.

or

Hogs and cattle.

I have not seen a rail livestock car for decades. It is all truck transport.

I understand. I should have used a smiley.

Get ready for a cargument: I remember when I could buy a clean '57 Chevy 2-door Belair for $1000.00.

Stick around for awhile. There is something I want to buy.

More people in the hobby. And not necessarily on pinside. I got started in 2015 and went chasing after 8 pins. And there are more who have came after me.

A couple of years ago I saw a video with Jack Danger saying when he started his blog that he had 5000 people hanging around and he said he was up to 50,000 people following his blog. This was a couple of years ago.

Not every house has room for a ping pong table but most houses can find room for a pinball machine. Golf is expensive. Owning a boat is like pissing money away. High gas prices make hunting and fishing a high cost proposition.

Once one buys a pin or buys a pin and restores it, the cost of ownership is negligible. You don't need to buy insurance or pay annual property taxes.

More people. More interest. Only so many old machines to go around. And new production can't keep up.

We seem to be in a period of rising interest rates. I lived with the Paul Volker rates in the 80s. 22% for a time. Treasury bonds were paying 18%. My home mortgage was 10%.

Do you think rising rates will not affect pinball?

Mortgage rates are now at 8.25% if I am looking at correct information.

https://promotions.bankofamerica.com/homeloans/todays-rates/mortgage?subCampCode=52666&dmcode=18099638893&cm_mmc=CRE-SD1-_-Google-PS-_-30_year_mortgage_rate-_-NB_Term__638893&gclid=CjwKCAjws9ipBhB1EiwAccEi1BfkAdhbZK56ArLBTyW5MooDWdqIQOaz_1wcTfdyUOQ8j-V5mT2JQBoCpF4QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

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"The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for the 1st time since 2007. Here's why that matters"

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/yield-10-treasury-reached-5-131529201.html
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" Higher yields mark a sharp turnaround for a generation of consumers and investors who have known pretty much just low yields, as central banks kept benchmark interest rates pinned at nearly zero. Such low rates let people borrow money more easily, which helped economies to strengthen following the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis and other maladies including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.

The low rates led to rising prices for houses, stocks and other investments, but they may also have encouraged too much risk-taking and spurred investment bubbles."
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Will pinball be considered a hedge against inflation and overcome rising interest rates?

I lived through Paul Volker's 22% interest rates. They could go a lot higher.

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