JJP sold 5000 of GnR, they will likely sell 6000 of these...So many new people in the hobby.

Things have changed since the 70's/80's...The crash of the shopping malls and arcades in general killed Coin-Op, also the rise in home console gaming, and PS1 systems bringing arcade quality gaming to the home, meant no need for arcades.

This is different, it's the ultimate gaming piece, my son is 13, plays a ton of video games, and he loves pinball...Guests I bring over are always like "whoa, you have pinball?!!" And they play them all, and love them.

Now, the pricing is crazy, but I don't know...I would rather buy a new pin than a new car

we're gonna find out, here

^^ How to upload a gif thread ia also needed

We are definitely getting close. Lots of new games for sale unboxed. Flippers not making the flip now.

It’s almost like some kind of spherical object often associated with soap is going to explode.

Or Gum

giphy.gif

And possibly a TZ remake not far away, and Tron with LCD screen.

Great time to go to TPF!

Im just glad with the p3 I dont need to use more room in my house for another whole machine. Saturate away p3.

... and Im also glad I cancelled my bond 60th, too many good looking games coming out!

I don't know if we're there just yet, but we are certainly fast on our way to it. It WILL happen at some point.

Too many people in pinball. Too many new people coming into the market.

Manufacturers probably are having a hard time getting that many games out. I think the limit is how many can they build ?

LTG : )

I was thinking more like a balloon that was about to pop. Or maybe a peep in a microwave that is about to explode?

Something like that!

Anyway, no, we haven't reached "saturation" or whatever we are calling a bubble burst this week. If the games are good, they will sell.

I think Queen and Spinal Tap are completely DOA at this point, and Galactic What Have You doesn't have a fucking chance as an inlicensed theme, but these "dream themes" made by the Big Three will sell fine. Spooky will continue chugging along in Spooky fashion. P3's new release will sell to the tiny but loud community of P3 fans but I just don't see that community growing much but it's probably enough to keep them going. You can just see the enthusiasm with every daily new reveal or teaser. People are lusting after buying this stuff.

And the bubble burst thread renniasance will continue unabated.

With all the releases over the past few weeks, it may start to make sense for AP to sort of skip this TPF for GTF. Maybe a better teaser or something. But the pinball dollars are being stretched thin with all these GOOD licensed themes all at once. It may not be the best idea to try to fight for this piece of the pie.

Wait until May when things have died down to unleash a shiny new toy on all of us who can't keep it in our pants that long.

I’ve been monitoring the total amount of games for sale over the last several months. I found it interesting that right after the foo fighters release, over 100 games were listed that day. Not seeing the same rotation for other titles. I know correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation however, it’s an observation. Perhaps jjp buyers are wealthier in general and don’t necessarily need to sell a game to acquire another. Personally, I can’t afford to just buy nib without moving something else out or placing it on route etc. Therefore, P3 is becoming much more attractive with the release of cool modules like Scott’s titles and heist etc. Just my .02 cents. It’s a wonderful time to be a buyer. More options despite being unaffordable to myself for now, may get scooped up in the secondary market a few years from now at a lower price.

Sounds complicated. If only there was a way to explain the complicated pinball market in an automotive type of way...

Lol, I did...Was looking at new cars last week...Not gonna do it...Makes 15k for a CE easier to justify

I personally try to time my for sale/ for trade ads with the release of new pinball machines. There are more people thinking about pinball, more people on pinside, and people with money saved up for the next title that will be disappointed no matter what.

lol every time a bubble forms people justify it and think it will continue forever. Bubbles last longer than people anticipate but they always pop.

Every time I hear the same mentality…. it’s different this time…. Crypto is different this time…. Housing is different this time…..

Last year the ski resorts where over crowded, trying to get a good day in you had to show up and hour before open on a powder day to get a parking spot this year i can roll up anytime i want. This is just one example of the eb and flow of the pandemic.

Having said that trying to predict when the bubble pops will just drive you crazy. Buy what you want if you can afford it and enjoy otherwise go play locally and if a bubble pops buy what you can afford then.

Agree,
but the average collector/hobbyist doesn't have room for unlimited pins
there is a saturation point for how many pins most people can own at 1 time - for me it's 5
If I want to buy a new game (since I am at my saturation point) I need to sell a current game
the more people that are at their personal saturation point, the more used games that will go on the market as new games are bought

This "bubble" has been lasting for well over 20 years, with proclamations of it popping lasting just as long. Here ya go, some reading material!

But it's different this time.

2000:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/gzU8ZAOxvUE/qII_fx4klQ0J

2001:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/3XZf_itbXjY/QI04T4Qr9UkJ

2002:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/8CDhldb5kyw/JxQRQPIGmQwJ

2003:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20market$20price$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/clAO0zIHHfQ/CbExiOZrldIJ

2004:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/pXZDb-2V6Yk/GSPWq06-nWsJ

2005:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/ACTs0HpQktA/x-C5LZAF180J

2006:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/dBrqPnk7mkk/nQYyh65_fewJ

2007:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20prices$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/femnxuH8a1k/oeXzsItDbOQJ

2008:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/44iMVjwb68o/wXb8-3F9vOIJ

2009:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/JsgTrS05pCc/8pB5t9oUqTAJ

2010:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/hNRZGnOAZ-Y/bs8Js1M7sUAJ

2011:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/DlcZoruS0Bo/VO_cueyPCEQJ

2012:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again

2013:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-will-pop

2014:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/this-is-not-a-rebirth-of-pinball-its-a-bubble

2015:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-all-want-the-ass-to-drop-out-of-pinball

2016:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/when-will-the-stern-bubble-burst

2017:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-we-in-a-pinball-bubble

2018:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/why-i-feel-pinball-prices-are-going-to-plummet

2019:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/will-pinball-prices-come-down-

2020:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-dropping-
2021 (this year was a fuggin BANNER YEAR for price bubble threads...maybe it's something in the vaccines! here's a pathetically partial list):
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-pricing-bubble-due-to-covid-one-nine
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/similarities-with-pinball-market-amp-the-2008-housing-crash
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/next-pinball-depression-
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/how-to-feel-about-these-exorbitant-pinball-prices/page/2#post-6254131
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pingreed-is-a-cancer-is-there-a-cure
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-of-pinball-machines-today#post-6229413
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinflation-or-inflation
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/price-gouging
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/f-you-stern-and-your-price-increases
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-pinballs-the-beanie-baby-craze-of-the-2020s
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-have-jumped-the-shark

2022:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/it-appears-the-insanity-is-ending#post-6954499

2023:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/where-should-stern-pros-prices-land#post-7351142

NO! IT’S DIFF’RENT THIS TIME!!!!!!

wow, that's quite the effort

I just cut and paste it now, and add a fresh one every year.

Gotta keep doing it, until the bubble bursts or the bubble thread bubble bursts.

It is fun to read 20 year old threads where people are whining about $4,000 MMs and how the madness will be collapsing any day now, "just like the Juke box hobby. And also cars. Always, always always fucking cars."

I have zero interest in the Godfather. Don't even ever want to play the thing. I started watching part of a Jersey Jack promo for the machine and nope. Not for me. Totally bored with it after 3 or 4 minutes. Compared to the marketing for Stern Foo Fighters, this Godfather thing put me to sleep.

I don't see how you guys are buying any of these new machines. I'm clearly in the wrong line of work.

I agree with whoever noted that there was a surge in machines for sale that coincided with the Foo Fighters release. My best hope is that people will start unloading some wedgeheads, classic Sterns/Ballys, or System 11 games that I can afford to scoop up.

I sold three games this week. If I wanted to buy all three of the released revealed the last week, I could afford it and I'd have the space.

As long as there's new folks coming in, and there still seems to be, every single day, we can keep this churn up. And it's still a tiny niche hobby with tons of room for growth.

@crazylevi, I am still amazed at having the money to buy new machines that are $10K each. You people must have high paying jobs. I am not part of the elite. I guess there is the chance you could have bought some machines years ago and unloaded them for big profits...so that could help. I think I must be operating in a much lower level of income/wealth than a lot of you guys. I need Congress to give me another raise.

Couldn't agree more. With TNA moving out in favor of Paragon and some funds for my P3 module and some other trades I've done, I'm now up to over 50 pins running through my basement in the past 4 years. Way too many. But I've never had more than 6 at once (also ridiculous). In all of my buy/sell/trade trips I've only ever been to one person's house who bought all the pins and kept them. He had over 120 pins at his house... mostly LEs. Only sold me a pin because he got a better example of it (a Black Kinght). After seeing that, I made a mental promise that I'd keep it in check. Could never play that many, much less keep them running.

As to getting out of the hobby or people unloading all their pins, of my 50 pin sale/trades, only 2 have been "the last pin in the house". One was a divorce sale, the other was an estate sale. Conversely maybe half of my pins that are moved for cash end up being to a first time pin buyer (most people trade). There are absolutely more people than ever in the hobby (at home).

What I really want to know is... what is the bottom line price going to to be on NIB Halloween/Ultraman. I've been offered 3 now in the past 2 weeks and have started putting "not interested in Halloween/Ultraman" in my ads.

What we MIGHT have reached is... the end of NIB Pinball Flippers.

Trust me... some people walk into my basement and say, "damn, what do you do for a living"? I walk into some other people's basements and say, "damn, what do you do for a living". This hobby actually has a pretty wide range of incomes.

Paging Levi. Oh wait here he is.

The bubble popped a few times during those years.

Stern nearly went out of business. You remember those yrs

Then JJP around Hobbit timeframe

I actually don't know who the weakest manufacturer is these days. I would think the most at risk would be those outside the USA (The European, Australian, and Chinese ones) but have no data to back it up.

100%
I only have room for 5, and I am sort of glad I have that limitation

Yup, 5 or 6 for me due to space limitations. I also can't envision maintaining more than that. Plus the money thing too.

Pinball machines have not reached market saturation, and a comparison can be drawn between the pinball machine industry and the automotive industry to support this argument.

The automotive industry is a mature industry that has been around for over a century. Despite this long history, the industry continues to innovate and introduce new models, features, and technologies to meet changing consumer preferences and needs. Every year, car manufacturers release new models and designs to attract buyers and gain market share. This constant innovation and introduction of new products are evidence that the automotive industry has not reached market saturation.

Similarly, the pinball machine industry has also shown a willingness to innovate and introduce new products to the market. Pinball machine manufacturers have released new models with different themes, features, and technologies to appeal to new audiences and retain their current customer base. For example, recent innovations in the pinball machine industry include interactive LED lighting, high-definition displays, and advanced sound systems. These new features and technologies have helped to attract new buyers to the market and keep existing customers interested.

Furthermore, the pinball machine industry has not yet reached market saturation because there are still untapped markets and opportunities for growth. Pinball machines are popular among certain demographics, such as collectors, enthusiasts, and hobbyists, but there are still many potential customers who have yet to experience the thrill of playing a pinball machine. Additionally, the rise of barcades, which are bars that feature classic arcade games, including pinball machines, has created a new market for pinball machine manufacturers to tap into.

In conclusion, the automotive industry's constant innovation and introduction of new models and technologies demonstrate that it has not reached market saturation. Similarly, the pinball machine industry's willingness to innovate and appeal to new audiences and untapped markets suggests that it has not yet reached market saturation.

Bond LEs and 60th down, Spooky down, TS4 down, Queen DOA?, That’s PB

You’ll be able to buy pretty much every game made today for cheaper prices in the future. Despite some lingering FOMO

Call it whatever you want, flippers on NIB finally done?

I mean I’m doing my part to support new games!

The old cargument! We don’t need pinball machines, we need cars to get around

While it is true that cars are a crucial mode of transportation for many people, it is important to recognize that there are many other forms of entertainment and leisure activities that people enjoy besides just transportation. Pinball machines provide a fun and nostalgic experience for many individuals, and they can be enjoyed by people of all ages.

Moreover, pinball machines are not just a form of entertainment but also an art form. The intricate artwork, designs, and themes that are incorporated into pinball machines make them a unique and valuable piece of pop culture history. Many pinball machines are now collector's items and can be worth a significant amount of money.

Furthermore, the pinball machine industry is not just about producing games for personal entertainment. Many businesses, such as bars and arcades, use pinball machines as a way to attract customers and generate revenue. In this sense, pinball machines can be seen as a valuable tool for small businesses and the local economy.

In summary, while cars are undoubtedly a crucial mode of transportation, it is important to recognize the value of other forms of entertainment and leisure activities, such as pinball machines. The pinball machine industry provides entertainment, art, and economic benefits that should not be overlooked or undervalued.

A lot of the “non elite” on here, of which I am for sure a part, just built their collection through time and patience and some lucky deals here and there. I started collecting arcades in 2012, bought and sold and traded up and got into pins around 2016. Bought and flipped games, hunted down the deals when I could, and now I could probably sell everything I have for double what I’m into it for. Money helps, but if you’re cheap like me, you gotta stalk the deals.

Apparently you don't like super bowls either.

Sorry, couldn't resit.

I can't imagine anyone that loves pinball would look at a game like this AND NOT EVEN WANT TO FLIP IT. Come on, man!

lol is this being generated from AI?

Ok. I asked ChatGPT. Here's the difinitive answer EaglePin and @crazylevi:

pasted_image (resized).png

Would someone please photoshop a shirt on him!

The car analogy isn’t relevant.

Pinball, as an entertainment/hobby/leisure option is fantastic.

You can’t just sweep under the rug the times that the pinball industry suffered because of lack of demand.

Today, we are nowhere near the peak of the Williams/Bally days in the 90s.

When things get too expensive in any hobby or leisure endeavor, the demand is “pruned”.

When the price of Oil spiked last summer there was “demand destruction” happening with people filling up their tanks and driving, brought pricing back down and supply in balance.

Pinball is a fun/great hobby, the LCD innovation, lighting etc has brought it to another level

To act like there is no limit and demand is “inelastic” like a Pepsi product is “Crazy”.

People still buy a bag of chips with less chips and a .10 cent increase to cover inflation.

The double your $$$ days are gone, so is the FOMO.

Anybody here think they will realistically be selling a GFCE for $20k or any other “LE” in the future?

The utility value just isn’t there in a pinball machine. Spend that much $$$ and other items come in to compete for $$$

I can see you're skeptical about ChatGPT's bona fides. Well, I think this should put all of your doubts to rest:

pasted_image (resized).png

Okay... I'll address the elephant in the room. Of course we reached market saturation... why else would Deeproot have gone out of business?

You raise valid points regarding the fluctuations in demand for pinball machines and the impact of pricing on the market. While it is true that the pinball industry has experienced periods of low demand in the past, it is also true that the industry has rebounded and continues to innovate and introduce new products and technologies to appeal to customers.

Additionally, while demand for pinball machines may not be completely inelastic, the recent innovations in the industry, such as LCD displays, interactive lighting, and advanced sound systems, have helped to attract new buyers and retain existing customers. These innovations have enhanced the playing experience and increased the value of pinball machines as a form of entertainment and leisure activity.

Moreover, the resurgence of barcades and other businesses that feature classic arcade games, including pinball machines, suggests that there is still a demand for these games and that they can be a profitable business venture.

In conclusion, while demand for pinball machines may not be completely inelastic, the industry's willingness to innovate and introduce new products and technologies, coupled with the continued popularity of classic arcade games, suggests that the pinball machine industry has not yet reached market saturation and can still thrive as a form of entertainment and leisure activity.