I cant imagine a BETTER time to capitalize on LOTR VE than right NOW... or actually, right at the next movie release whenm presumably:
1. Middle Earth hype is at an all-time high
2. JJP send out their first message about supplier problems and slipping delivery schedules...

Dont underestimate Stern enjoying the ability to poke JJP in the eye after all Jack's badmouthing.

Imagine this sales pitch:

"
Excited about The latest Middle Earth movie?
Excited about continuing the experience in your very own game room?
Disappointed to may have to wait 1-18 months to get your JJP pre-paid machine?
Worried about how that Smaug really is going to look?
Well, worry no longer- we've got a deal for you!!!!
Refund your JJP money, order a NIB, refreshed LOTR and it'll be in your gameroom by the end of the week!
Oh.... and you can put the extra $3K difference in price back in the bank!

I think you have it backwards.

The current lack of inspiring pinball is what makes people desire 10 and 20 year old games more so than some of these new ones.

People willing to pay $8k for MMr, for example, is an indictment of current pinball, not MMr.

Depending on the VE release date, price and also JJPs ability (or inability) to meet deadlines:

This could potentially do a lot more than bruise their nutsack, it could be a knock-out punch for the whole company.

I highly doubt JJP (or any startup) could withstand a title flopping.

Now, JJP can certainly have a lot to say about this: if their next reveal of TH addresses some of the recent criticism and starts to win back interest- well maybe they could survive this kind of competition...

Also, if it looks like they can actually get machines running out the door at a reasonable pace- that would also help....

I agree with some of this...

But the price-inflating speculators (who have the most to lose) have no one to blame but themselves....

As Stern sees the resale market for old titles exceeding the old NIB price, they will obviously start running the numbers on re-issues and remakes.

Folks should get used to pins coming out of the vault at Stern.... i think their new model will be:
2 new titles a year
1-2 vault re-issues
1 (maybe) assembly project for a parner (ie MMr, MMr, AFMr, etc)

DE Star Wars?

Might be some interest with the new movie coming out in 2015....

Plus, I hear if you get it autgraphed, the value can skyrocket!

1. Many people WOULD pay this.... brand new (updated?) vs 11 yrs old? And what if its $5500? Who knows exactly what they might include and/or price it at.

2. Not everyone in the target market is sifting through pinside for deals... Stern cant mass market a bunch of used games... they certainly can new ones rolling off the assembly line.

All things being equal, Id think there were other titles ahead of LOTR, however the imminent movie release changes the playing field. Also, the ability to knock one of JJPs legs out from under them (or potentially put them out of business) is another intangible....

Hell, Stern might decide to use this re-release to put JJP under. What if they released it at $4900? Think there'd be some buyers?

A short term cut in their GP on the game could be seen as a reasonable investment to bury JJP.

Not really.

JJP's release of the pin is dictated by the contract they have re: the license.

And, Stern would want to release the pin to gain maximum hype from the MOVIE, not the release date of TH pinball.

Stern could decide to release LOTR VE a month or two prior while all those trailers are running and tv ads playing for the upcoming movie.... AND, they have the ability to get them out into the market MUCH faster!

So, while JJP is struggling to get a dozen machines out by years end to meet their contractual agreement, Stern could have hundreds already enroute to customers....

I just think this is fundamentally wrong for many pinheads....

I don't spend 4-8K on pinball based on some internal calculation of depreciation...

I know its been said before, but you never lose a penny on a machine unless you sell it.

I probably lost $2K-$3K ONE MINUTE after I took ownership of my last car... oh no!!! I didnt care, not becuase Im "super rich" (Im not), but because I bought that car to DRIVE. I buy pinball to play pinball.

So maybe im in the minority, but your statement inferred EVERYONE but the super-rich are infatuated with resale value- thats not true.

You really think the boutique manufacturers are going to expand the base?

So a lot of folks new to pinball are going to deal with the pre-pay/preorder fiasco from JJP?
Or could even FIND information about Predator from SkitB?

Id say the boutiques are exactly the opposite, more geared towards the ultimate pinball insiders- NOT the faint-hearted!

What's this predator game you speak of?

Can you provide a link?