Hey,
To directly answer the question from the OP, if the situation you mentioned above (any given pin would drop $200 to $500 a year) occurred, then it would have almost no effect on me whatsoever, as the value of games relative to one another wouldn't change. I almost wish I could get that kind of consistency, if the truth were to be known.
Say some guy has two machines for sale for $3,500, a TZ and a TAF. You go to his house, and buy the TZ. $3,500 out of your wallet. A year later, you decide you want a TAF instead. Your TZ now sells for $3,000. However, by the same logic, the TAF should now only sell for $3,000 as well, so you're not out any money. If you're staying in the hobby, and all games are dropping in price, you'll still be able to shuffle games that are regarded as more or less equal without taking a hit.
Maybe it's not exactly bang on, but by putting down $3,500 on that TZ, you have said, "I'm willing to pay the going rate for a so-called A-list pin in today's dollars." If you want to keep an A-list pin, and they're all shifting prices at more or less the same rate, you're not losing or gaining anything until you go to sell that game outright and not replace it with something. Then the going rate matters.
Where it gets dicey is when the perceived value for one game changes and others don't, which tends to be what happens and screws everything up. I was talking to a fellow Pinsider tonight about my WhiteWater; I'll use it as an example because I know its sales patterns reasonably well. A while back, there was one for sale locally for $3,500, and I myself said that I thought it was too rich for my blood (the fellow I was talking to this evening mentioned my words, and I don't blame him for doing so ). At the time, yeah, $3,500 for a WhiteWater was above and beyond the going rate by quite a bit. Fast forward to now, and I'm advertising one for $3,500, and I've seen a handful for sale in that ballpark range. The market has changed, but only for that one pin. This is really good for me, because I bought a pin and now that one machine seems to sell for more than I paid for it; when I bought it, there was probably a good $1,000 difference between it and a TZ, and now there's maybe $500. It's not so good for the guy just trying to get a half-decent pin to start out.
This is the part of things that is more likely to affect what pins I do or do not buy, and I guess that in turn might affect the enjoyment I get out of the hobby. Part of the fun of this for me is scouring the message boards and Craig's List and various other places looking for something new, or setting up a trade, or road tripping 1500 miles to go get a machine.
The passion or the thrill of the hunt or what have you is going to be lost on me when there's no real value left to be rung out of any machine. I'll use DMDs as an example, but it applies to more or less any era of games. When I started just a couple of years back, TAF and TZ and a few others were the big buck machines. By my perception, people started playing cheaper machines because they represented value relative to the others. A $2,300 WhiteWater represented a better deal than a $3,500 Twilight Zone, so people bought the WhiteWater instead, even thought most people would say TZ is a better game. All of a sudden, everyone likes WhiteWater because it's cheap enough to play and people are spending a good amount of time on it. Pretty soon, the bang-for-the-buck is gone because everyone's playing it and wants one, the prices jumped, and now you're choosing between a WhiteWater and a TZ. It's happening with The Shadow right now. A year ago, every thread would consist of "the translite looks like crap", and they'd sell for under $2,000. Now you'd be hard pressed to find one south of $2,000, and the translite doesn't much seem to bother people. Yes, I own both WhiteWater and The Shadow, and that's probably why I've paid attention to them, but other examples would be Funhouse now being hard to find, and me thinking some guy was overpaying when he spent $3,500 for a routed AFM last year.
I personally have a thing for Twilight Zone. I'd like one someday. But if I had a brain in my head and wanted a really well-rounded collection, instead of spending $5,000 to $6,000 on a really nice one, I'd track down Bram Stoker's Dracula, Judge Dredd, Johnny Mnemonic, and Demo Man. I'm not a fortune teller, but they're the games getting a bit of a groundswell behind them, and it really wouldn't surprise me if they were $2,500 games in two or three years. Eventually, and I won't say when because I don't know, I think it's going to cost too much to get any game, let alone a decent game. That's when the passion will be out of this for me.
Man, I type a lot. I'm going to bed.
Luke