(Topic ID: 337638)

A canary in the price bubble mine ?

By Mr68

1 year ago


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    There are 119 posts in this topic. You are on page 1 of 3.
    #1 1 year ago

    Oh no, not another price bubble thread...

    I'm not declaring anything from this, but we are now 6 months into 2023 and I found this data update noteworthy.

    I'm grateful to Boston Pinball Repair for their efforts in maintaining this data since 2005.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WWuQ_sSjsEht0NgKYvgtkXTAa8fcADtT/view
    http://www.bostonpinball.biz/
    Price bubble (resized).pngPrice bubble (resized).png

    #2 1 year ago

    Interesting find. I think at some point prices were going to take a bit of a hit and level off as its unrealistic to think they will just keep going up.

    Also, and this is just my opinion, more and more buyers are selling their classic Bally Williams games to buyer newer Stern, JJP, and Spooky games. If enough sellers continue to do this those 90's Bally Williams titles will start to see a decrease in value.

    13
    #3 1 year ago

    I'm not particularly surprised by this. Stuff that would've sold instantly 2 or 3 years ago has been sitting for months on the local Facebook marketplace. My guess is that the covid-era first time pinball buyers are pivoting back to spending their summer fun money on vacations and recreation. I don't see the bubble bursting, but I can see some form of price retraction on its way.

    17
    #4 1 year ago

    Jim Cramer told me to wait for the double dip.

    #5 1 year ago

    I mean Addams had always felt like a "dated classic" to me that is priced WAY higher than a "dated classic" machine.

    I am not dismissing the fact that it is one of the most successful pinball theme integrations and possibly, the MOST recognized coin operated amusement machine from 1900-2000. Even non pinball people know the game because of the movie.

    BUT, it's still a machine from 1992. And, even comparing it to TZ or Medieval side by side for overall fun, there really is no contest. Addams is just not as great as a lot of machines that were designed after it.

    Even though I would not purchase either machine for whatever people pay for them these days, Addams "feels" a lot less like a 12-14K game to me and Medieval [and even TZ just a year later] both feel a lot MORE like one.

    Maybe the slight price drop is deserved? Down $2500 from $14000 hardly sounds like a bubble popping... Nearly ALL collectibles sold on ebay have dipped some 15-20% since "the pandemic surge".

    20
    #6 1 year ago

    In before CrazyLevi in a bubble thread! Should be a award!

    #7 1 year ago
    Quoted from snyper2099:

    I mean Addams had always felt like a "dated classic" to me that is priced WAY higher than a "dated classic" machine.
    I am not dismissing the fact that it is one of the most successful pinball theme integrations and possibly, the MOST recognized coin operated amusement machine from 1900-2000. Even non pinball people know the game because of the movie.
    BUT, it's still a machine from 1992. And, even comparing it to TZ or Medieval side by side for overall fun, there really is no contest. Addams is just not as great as a lot of machines that were designed after it.
    Even though I would not purchase either machine for whatever people pay for them these days, Addams "feels" a lot less like a 12-14K game to me and Medieval [and even TZ just a year later] both feel a lot MORE like one.
    Maybe the slight price drop is deserved?

    I'll tell you, I've never been an AF fan. I have a friend who's never been into pinball. In the last few years he has been, and AF is his favorite game, and he has no attachment to the movies or the theme. He will play and play it and keeps asking me to buy one or find him a cheap one (lol). He will play other pins but hasn't found one he likes as much. It has some kind of draw to people that others games don't and since I don't like it, I can't say what it is.

    #8 1 year ago

    Some of the price drops are due to talk about even greater number of remakes coming out soon. Along with more manufacturing from Stern & all of the other pinball companies. Also some people know that it is a good time to start selling off games at much more than they paid for them 20 - 30 years back when pinball ownership was very cheap!

    15
    #9 1 year ago

    This is bound to happen when you release like 8 new titles in the matter of a month or two. The volume of new games hitting the market is unprecedented right now, and the quality of games is really putting pressure on those $4000-$7000 classics from a home playability standpoint. I am pretty hard pressed to spend $5k or $6k on a nice condition Fish Tales when you can have a number of much deeper Stern Pro games for marginally more money. Factor in people only having so much room for games, new games they preordered a couple months ago starting to ship, and the typical spring price slump, the mentality of selling 2 lesser games to pay for your NIB, and we are in a mild price correction territory at the moment. I think we will level off again as summer gets into full swing and more stability into fall as these new games are no longer big news. Pinball is still growing, and I so not see that changing. 2 out of 3 times when I sell an older solid state game, it goes to someone new to the hobby.

    I noticed some significant change this year at the Allentown show as far as DMD era game sales went. Sales pricing in the "I would like to take this game home but will part with it for X price" did not go over as well this year as it did last year, and a lot of games went back home again unsold. I don't get the $10k for a beat up TAF thing myself...other than it being there just to impress other people who come see your collection.

    #10 1 year ago

    Sure sure remote jobs are here to stay, crypto will replace the dollar, home prices never decrease pinball demand will never subside… diamond hands everyone.

    Every time a bubble forms the arguments are always the same. once it busts everyone will come out and say it was so obvious. supply will increase demand will decrease and the price will find its equilibrium even if it means treading water for years as inflation chips into the profits.

    #11 1 year ago

    I am a collector, have a medium sized collection, and a giant wishlist I intend to pursue.

    I am blessed to say I have "deep pockets" in this regard, and try to treat everyone fairly.

    So...

    I had an agreement to purchase an unmodded HUO Addams for $11,500 two months ago, as part of a five game deal.

    The seller had acquired it for roughly (cant prove but believe) $9,000 and was flipping it. He then sold it out from underneath me for an unspecified amount.

    I reluctantly agreed to that price out of friendship and perceived market value.

    Feeling disgusted by the experience, I have not purchased since.

    giphy.gifgiphy.gif
    14
    #12 1 year ago

    I think some of you are focusing on Addams Family for the wrong reasons in this thread.

    Boston Pinball Repair simply chose AF as an example to follow and collect data on beginning in 2005.

    #13 1 year ago
    Quoted from Mr68:

    I think some of you are focusing on Addams Family for the wrong reasons in this thread.
    Boston Pinball Repair simply chose AF as an example to follow and collect data on begining in 2019.

    True...and fair enough Was merely an example to offer for reading enjoyment.

    I'll clarify my earlier post; I am not paying these outlandish asking prices of late. But...I look forward to purchasing more games so long as the insanity is reeled in.

    #14 1 year ago

    If true this just means less people in the hobby (demand) along with what is now a flood of HUO and restored games (supply) . The pandemic ends and people get back out in the world and sell off some games instead of staying home in their game room.

    Don't expect a crash though. A small correction. Not like I'll get a nice AFM for$2000 again any time soon...

    11
    #15 1 year ago
    Quoted from Flowst:

    I am a collector, have a medium sized collection, and a giant wishlist I intend to pursue.
    I am blessed to say I have "deep pockets" in this regard, and try to treat everyone fairly.
    So...
    I had an agreement to purchase an unmodded HUO Addams for $11,500 two months ago, as part of a five game deal.
    The seller had acquired it for roughly (cant prove but believe) $9,000 and was flipping it. He then sold it out from underneath me for an unspecified amount.
    I reluctantly agreed to that price out of friendship and perceived market value.
    Feeling disgusted by the experience, I have not purchased since. [quoted image]

    I've been collecting for over 25 years and have adopted this philosophy when dealing with buyers and sellers. They get the benefit of the doubt at first if they don't honor their word or we have a bad transaction I never do business with them again. So far only 3 people on this list with well over 100 transactions. Honor your commitments even when it cost you a couple hundred bucks. There are a few collectors who I don't hesitate to work with and have and will buy solely on their description of the game with no pics because we have built a good relationship. The bad apples are soon outed in this community don't let one bad experience ruin your love of the hobby. I would look at the guy selling the TAF from under you as a blessing you know if something was wrong with the machine they probably wouldn't have made it right... Cheep lesson move on..
    Oh my TAF was purchased in 1999 and has stayed in the same place in my gameroom since 2003 fantastic game no better integration of theme and call outs IMHO. New pinballers flock to it like moths to a flame even though there is no ball save yet they want more. TZ is close on Pats greatest hits and theme integration but if you want to get folks excited about pinball have a TAF in your lineup. Next to MM its the most requested game at our parties. Amazing game and no wonder it is the best selling of all time. Remake will be next to impossible due to IP and several actors are not willing to sign off on a remake so limited supply and increasing demand equals ridiculous price...
    Keep on flippin,
    Al

    #16 1 year ago
    Quoted from Deadlander:

    I've been collecting for over 25 years and have adopted this philosophy when dealing with buyers and sellers. They get the benefit of the doubt at first if they don't honor their word or we have a bad transaction I never do business with them again. So far only 3 people on this list with well over 100 transactions. Honor your commitments even when it cost you a couple hundred bucks. There are a few collectors who I don't hesitate to work with and have and will buy solely on their description of the game with no pics because we have built a good relationship. (PS - John from the previous post is one of them! ) The bad apples are soon outed in this community don't let one bad experience ruin your love of the hobby. I would look at the guy selling the TAF from under you as a blessing you know if something was wrong with the machine they probably wouldn't have made it right... Cheep lesson move on..
    Oh my TAF was purchased in 1999 and has stayed in the same place in my gameroom since 2003 fantastic game no better integration of theme and call outs IMHO. New pinballers flock to it like moths to a flame even though there is no ball save yet they want more. TZ is close on Pats greatest hits and theme integration but if you want to get folks excited about pinball have a TAF in your lineup. Next to MM its the most requested game at our parties. Amazing game and no wonder it is the best selling of all time. Remake will be next to impossible due to IP and several actors are not willing to sign off on a remake so limited supply and increasing demand equals ridiculous price...
    Keep on flippin,
    Al

    #18 1 year ago



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    12
    #19 1 year ago
    Quoted from Flowst:

    I am a collector, have a medium sized collection, and a giant wishlist I intend to pursue.

    Lol. You have 30 games and you think you have a "medium sized collection"? When I grow up, I want to be like you

    18
    #20 1 year ago
    Quoted from BallLocks:

    Lol. You have 30 games and you think you have a "medium sized collection"? When I grow up, I want to be like you

    Sorry, I didn't want to over/under state anything. I see guys with 100+ game collections and think wow, thats the way you do it...
    Please stop by anytime I am around and share my pins, free beer included. I am always thrilled to have guests!

    As for market pricing, and the thread topic, following closely.

    Jim

    #21 1 year ago

    Habo, I miss your thread

    You stop by NJ too sir!

    Can't remember if I was supposed to buy a game from you a few years ago....

    #22 1 year ago
    Quoted from Mr68:

    I think some of you are focusing on Addams Family for the wrong reasons in this thread.
    Boston Pinball Repair simply chose AF as an example to follow and collect data on beginning in 2005.

    I'm focused on TAF for all the right reasons. It was one specific example. Many other high end machines have stayed the same where Addams has dropped, some went up quite a bit during the pandemic and have stayed there... I've followed Boston's tracked pricing for over a decade. I started to keep track of TAF when it was $2500-$3K. Although noteworthy, the one pictured example should not and does not dictate the market trends of pinball as a whole. I believe we actually are in agreement. I just pointed out some specific reasons TAF prices MAY HAVE fluctuated, nothing more. Pinball is fun.

    #23 1 year ago

    I had played pinball since I was 5! Then,around 1968 life started to happen.Pinball kinda got the back seat.Then,driving bus in c.c.c.our union bought 2 pins for our break room! A TAF,and a Funhouse!It was on! 9 yrs ago I finally bought a TAF for $8.5k.Just sold it for $11.k!

    #24 1 year ago

    Oh man, prices are dropping!!! Better sell my AFM for $25K while the market is still warm!!!!

    #25 1 year ago
    Quoted from NPO:

    Oh man, prices are dropping!!! Better sell my AFM for $25K while the market is still warm!!!!

    You can have mine for 15k let the price wars begin!

    #26 1 year ago
    Quoted from Mr68:

    Oh no, not another price bubble thread...
    I'm not declaring anything from this, but we are now 6 months into 2023 and I found this data update noteworthy.
    I'm grateful to Boston Pinball Repair for their efforts in maintaining this data since 2005.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WWuQ_sSjsEht0NgKYvgtkXTAa8fcADtT/view
    http://www.bostonpinball.biz/
    [quoted image]

    Pinside charts machine sales over time now. I would think that would be more accurate data than Ebay "sales".

    #27 1 year ago

    I wonder how much the market would be affected if Stern Pinball released their actual production numbers? IMO they do their customers & fan base a disservice by not releasing that information.
    Sometimes I wonder if that’s actually an accounting thing. If no one knows how many games are made then no one really knows how much money they should be reporting as income.
    That being said, knowing actual production numbers might not matter…case in point, TAF. They made a gazillion in comparison to other titles, and it’s still among the highest priced games to buy from any era of pinball.

    #28 1 year ago
    Quoted from Palmer:

    Pinside charts machine sales over time now. I would think that would be more accurate data than Ebay "sales".

    Screenshot 2023-05-31 132933 (resized).pngScreenshot 2023-05-31 132933 (resized).png
    -1
    #29 1 year ago

    HAL 9000 tells it like it is...

    As of 2021, there is a growing concern among pinball enthusiasts and collectors that a price bubble may be forming in the pinball market. This concern is due to the rapid increase in prices for vintage and rare pinball machines, with some machines selling for tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

    One factor contributing to the price increase is the limited supply of vintage and rare pinball machines. Many of these machines were produced in limited quantities and have become increasingly difficult to find as time goes on. Additionally, many collectors are willing to pay a premium for machines that are in excellent condition or have unique features.

    Another factor driving up prices is the growing popularity of pinball as a hobby and form of entertainment. Pinball has seen a resurgence in recent years, with new machines being produced by major manufacturers like Stern Pinball and Jersey Jack Pinball. This renewed interest in pinball has led to more people entering the hobby and competing for a limited number of vintage and rare machines.

    However, some experts believe that the current price increases may not be sustainable and that a price bubble could be forming. A price bubble occurs when prices rise far above their intrinsic value and are driven by speculation rather than actual demand. If this were to happen in the pinball market, it could result in a sharp decline in prices as collectors realize that they have overpaid for their machines.

    It is important to note that not all pinball machines are experiencing this price increase. Machines that are more common or less sought after may still be available at reasonable prices. Additionally, prices can vary depending on factors such as location, condition, and rarity.

    In conclusion, while there is currently a concern about a pinball price bubble forming, it is important to approach the market with caution and do thorough research before making any purchases.

    #30 1 year ago
    Quoted from Palmer:

    Pinside charts machine sales over time now. I would think that would be more accurate data than Ebay "sales".

    I think both methods are flawed in one way or another.

    But as to Ebay sales, the data is based on successful sales and not the asking price.
    On Pinside, if you examine the archived data, you'll find people not posting the final price for privacy reasons, or they claim their game was sold elsewhere and its undocumented.

    How can I find the Pinside data? I wasn't aware of it.

    #31 1 year ago
    Quoted from timtim:

    Jim Cramer told me to wait for the double dip.

    Inverse Cramer is a great Twitter follow.

    https://twitter.com/CramerTracker

    #32 1 year ago
    Levi.gifLevi.gif
    #33 1 year ago
    Quoted from jellikit:

    HAL 9000 tells it like it is...
    As of 2021, there is a growing concern among pinball enthusiasts and collectors that a price bubble may be forming in the pinball market. This concern is due to the rapid increase in prices for vintage and rare pinball machines, with some machines selling for tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    One factor contributing to the price increase is the limited supply of vintage and rare pinball machines. Many of these machines were produced in limited quantities and have become increasingly difficult to find as time goes on. Additionally, many collectors are willing to pay a premium for machines that are in excellent condition or have unique features.
    Another factor driving up prices is the growing popularity of pinball as a hobby and form of entertainment. Pinball has seen a resurgence in recent years, with new machines being produced by major manufacturers like Stern Pinball and Jersey Jack Pinball. This renewed interest in pinball has led to more people entering the hobby and competing for a limited number of vintage and rare machines.
    However, some experts believe that the current price increases may not be sustainable and that a price bubble could be forming. A price bubble occurs when prices rise far above their intrinsic value and are driven by speculation rather than actual demand. If this were to happen in the pinball market, it could result in a sharp decline in prices as collectors realize that they have overpaid for their machines.
    It is important to note that not all pinball machines are experiencing this price increase. Machines that are more common or less sought after may still be available at reasonable prices. Additionally, prices can vary depending on factors such as location, condition, and rarity.
    In conclusion, while there is currently a concern about a pinball price bubble forming, it is important to approach the market with caution and do thorough research before making any purchases.

    Why is this so heavily redacted?

    #34 1 year ago
    Quoted from Mr68:

    I think both methods are flawed in one way or another.
    But as to Ebay sales, the data is based on successful sales and not the asking price.
    On Pinside, if you examine the archived data, you'll find people not posting the end price for privacy reasons, or they claim their game was sold elsewhere and its undocumented.
    How can I find the Pinside data? I wasn't aware of it.

    Was added recently. It's on the splash page of every game now. I believe that even if final sales price is kept private, it still is logged in the database which calculates average price over time. The major flaw with Pinside sales figures is how game deposits are lumped into machine sales. It drastically skews the numbers (See Scooby). But with a game like Addams Family, that wouldn't be the case.

    Screenshot 2023-05-31 at 2.06.04 PM (resized).pngScreenshot 2023-05-31 at 2.06.04 PM (resized).png
    #35 1 year ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Why is this so heavily redacted?

    Free AI.

    #36 1 year ago

    You can pick another game and get a completely different curve. Look at DE G and R. Basically flat for the last 5 years. Just saying.

    If you’re a collector you don’t do this for the investment portion. I used to like to pick up Addams for $1050. Yeah, you could. I think it’s more fun bringing home an entire truckload of pins for $10K, today you need like 100K or more to do the same thing

    You have to look at the positive aspects of a lower price. If there really is a lower price

    #37 1 year ago

    The Wednesday TV show also came out in 2022, I expect it drove the price of that particular game up.

    But with so many new pinball games coming out, I see people that have built or held on to Bally Williams 90s collections finally starting to sell some of their games off to buy a new pin. I can't see the prices dropping much though, there are so many more people buying and collecting pins now and a finite number of those older titles.

    #38 1 year ago

    nvm!

    #39 1 year ago

    The other flaw to the Pinside and Ebay data I just thought of, is the clientele of each.

    It's my guess that Pinside has way more knowledgeable veterans than rookies, and Ebay just the opposite.

    Which makes me wonder why the Ebay data went down instead of up? ...Hmmmm

    Who the hell knows.
    All I know is that I prefer data over collector's rhythmically chanting on Pinside while clutching their Gary Stern Voodoo Doll.

    #40 1 year ago
    Quoted from Mr68:

    All I know is that I prefer data over collector's rhythmically chanting on Pinside while clutching their Gary Stern Voodoo Doll.

    gary (resized).pnggary (resized).png
    #41 1 year ago

    The only time I see prices wavering a little are for titles that are listed at a peak price, and there's more than just one on the market. With TAF, there has been a fairly good supply of them appearing as the peak price has cracked and exceeded the $10k mark in the past few months. There's only so many buyers at that level, so it wouldn't be difficult to imagine a slow down of peak price purchasers.

    Right now, there are over a dozen TZ's in the marketplace in the $9500-$13k range, and most are just sitting there. I don't imagine many of them will move until the prices are lowered to the point where potential buyers are attracted to the reduced price.

    #42 1 year ago

    I come from two other collecting backgrounds: video games and MtG cards. Both I got lucky and beat the jump in expense and used some of that to buy pinball machines.

    The main thing that struck me getting into pinball ownership were the 'print runs'. Seriously, they are such a joke. 5000 made? 20000 is the highest ever? If this hobby ever really becomes mainstream, those things will cost a fortune. 20k units is nothing!

    I do agree the new pins + space are getting people to sell and trade, but I think that has always been an aspect to the already expensive pinball hobby. I am super curious to see how the LCD machines retain their pricing in another 10 years, as I think they won't be nearly as reliable as the earlier games; but I am biased as I am only interested in 90s DMDs.

    #43 1 year ago
    Quoted from Deadlander:

    You can have mine for 15k let the price wars begin!

    i kNoW whAT I hAVe, GOBBLESS

    #44 1 year ago
    Quoted from jellikit:

    As of 2021, there is a growing concern among pinball enthusiasts and collectors that a price bubble may be forming in the pinball market.

    No there isn't.

    Quoted from jellikit:

    However, some experts believe that the current price increases may not be sustainable and that a price bubble could be forming. A price bubble occurs when prices rise far above their intrinsic value and are driven by speculation rather than actual demand. If this were to happen in the pinball market, it could result in a sharp decline in prices as collectors realize that they have overpaid for their machines.

    Experts? Who exactly are these so called experts? Speculation? No one cares. People with with more money than sense pay whatever someone wants. No one buying a 10K pinball machine is going to all of the sudden "not have any money" and be up in arms if the going rate for that game suddenly drops to $3,000. And so what if they even are all "up in a tizzy" over it? Who the hell even cares? We will all go on through life and in the grand scheme of things, no one will really give two shits. Maybe the market and hobby will return back to the good ole days in 2004 when it was all just pinball freaks and geeks. I will gladly open my arms to that and hug it!

    Quoted from jellikit:

    In conclusion, while there is currently a concern about a pinball price bubble forming, it is important to approach the market with caution and do thorough research before making any purchases.

    Again, no it is not important. Maybe to you but, most people who can afford the 10K machines and are paying someone else to service them do NOT give a crap about "doing research" and "being careful".

    #45 1 year ago
    Quoted from snyper2099:

    No there isn't.

    Experts? Who exactly are these so called experts? Speculation? No one cares. People with with more money than sense pay whatever someone wants. No one buying a 10K pinball machine is going to all of the sudden "not have any money" and be up in arms if the going rate for that game suddenly drops to $3,000. And so what if are all up in a tizzy? Who the hell even cares? We will all go on through life and in the grand scheme of things, no one will really give two shits. Maybe the market and hobby will return back to the good ole days in 2002 when it was all just pinball freaks and geeks. I will gladly open my arm to that!

    Again, no it is not important. Maybe to you but, most people who can afford the 10K machines and are paying someone else to service them does not give a crap about doing research and "being careful".

    Woosh.

    #46 1 year ago
    Quoted from Nintegageo:

    I am super curious to see how the LCD machines retain their pricing in another 10 years, as I think they won't be nearly as reliable as the earlier games

    LOL..... They will all be unplayable, just paper weights

    #47 1 year ago
    Quoted from centerflank:

    LOL..... They will all be unplayable, just paper weights

    Nah in ten years you'll just tell Pin-GPT what's wrong with your game and it will send schematics to your 3D printer and you'll be on your merry way.

    #48 1 year ago

    Some games have been steadily coming down in price... See Thunderbirds... although in fairness the price has dropped steadily as more people have played them.

    pasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image (resized).png
    #49 1 year ago

    I feel like this thread pops up every spring. In my experience the market floods in the spring months as some people are either making space for the newest or a guy cleaning out the basement, and then prices hike back up as we get closer to winter. Maybe a slight stabilization may be happening but IMHO I don't foresee prices dropping significantly.

    #50 1 year ago
    Quoted from fisherdaman:

    I feel like this thread pops up every spring. In my experience the market floods in the spring months as some people are either making space for the newest or a guy cleaning out the basement, and then prices hike back up as we get closer to winter. Maybe a slight stabilization may be happening but IMHO I don't foresee prices dropping significantly.

    Yeah, there is very much seasonal sales activity.

    In addition to general spring cleaning, pinball shows are also happening.

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