Quoted from Chitownpinball:Lots of factors.
How many games do you have now?
What games?
What themes do you like?
What kind of gameplay do you like?
If it was me, Id buy a stern pro or some flavor or another. Then use the $500 left over for mods.
Quoted from Jasenwm:So I've been collecting video games for 30 years I'm 42. I have about 22 consoles and few arcade cabs some I built. My list of pinball I WANT are black hole, haunted house, wipe out, Metallica, rescue 911,. I was going to get a virtual pin but I kinna want the real deal even though it's $$$
Quoted from Jasenwm:I'm just getting into pinball. I have a bunch of arcade games but only one pin. 1976 fireball home model
I would take some time to figure out a ranking order for what you like, and explore as many games on location that you can (barcades, bowling alleys, etc). Plays EMs, early ss games, system 11 games, classic ballys, etc.
I feel that the best option is variety, especially in a home setting. If you find out that you like EMs or early ss games...you could fill up a room with 5k.
I wouldn't just go for 1 pin unless you are absolutely in love with it, and feel that you wont get bored with it anytime soon.
If it were me, i would try yo find a stern meteor, EBD LE, and a bally paragon...then you would have 3 GREAT games.