One thing that may help (forgive me if I missed an earlier comment) is to not always think about a shot as hit or miss. You mentioned earlier that you consider shots binary as hit or miss, however how you miss can be important. For example if you are going for the right ramp on Mando from the left flipper, and you miss early it might be more dangerous as the shot rockets off the left standup back to the middle not even giving you time to nudge or react appropriately. Now for the same shot if you had missed late it might bounce off the standup and off the orbit guide, or off the two right targets and give you time to react, decide to nudge and get back to control, or save it from an outlane. Point being the difference in options and reaction time between the two misses.

From the aiming perspective I think that is the hardest part of the game to learn (for myself that is, others it just seems to come naturally). I have seen how some of the top players learn and adapt to where shots are, and am aware that is a huge part of the game that is missing from my play. In that case you really have to decide what aiming strategy works for you and what you need to do in order to increase accuracy. Then practice the ever-loving crap out of it until it is second nature or until you are so disciplined that you no longer take errant shots and always go through your aim procedure.