(Topic ID: 8901)

2020 Pinflation Predictions

By HighProtein

12 years ago


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  • Latest reply 4 years ago by arcademojo
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    #1 12 years ago

    So here are some pinflation predictions that I'll let just roll out of my brain.
    I've only been buying since 4/2011 and back in the pinball game since 10/2007.
    All games bought on the cheap now will keep their value.

    Monster Bash and Medieval Madness will continue to climb, where they top, hell it's unknown.

    Sterns will hold value except games like High Roller Casino.

    Spider-Man will keep it's value and rise!
    Lord of the Rings will keep it's value and rise!

    Transformers will keep most of it's value for sure.

    Williams Indy and Star Trek Next Gen will continue to gradually climb.

    T2, Fish Tales, HS2, BSD will all average above $2000 in good condition.

    Rare games like Big Bang Bar will still climb, even the repros...

    The price of new games will rise for sure, hell it is a given.

    It will be practically impossible to find a DMD game below $1200 that works completely.

    Mods will help keep value in games more than now.

    Old EMs will gradually add some selling power but not much unless its Wizard or in excellent shape.

    Basically I will conclude this with a special note.
    CDs and bank savings are shit because interest rates from the federal reserve are shit,
    so I personally suggest money in pinballs over letting the banks fractional bank and
    gamble on our savings. I'm bullish on pinball and put my money where my mouth is.
    Hell money in a crappy returning (losing after inflation) investment vehicle
    has never made me happy but pinball always does.

    Other Predictions???

    #2 12 years ago

    All B title games will be on the rise too.

    #3 12 years ago

    I'm not worried about it. All i hope for is that my a list game and b list games are worth what the other a and b list games i want to replace them with when i tire of them.

    #4 12 years ago
    Quoted from MMuller:

    All B title games will be on the rise too.

    What B titles will rise the most ya think?

    #5 12 years ago

    Thats where ive put my money. Ive paid 1200 for all of my pins. (500 in tee'd off.) Id value my collection at roughly 7 grand. That's my post college fund so I can get an apartment. This investment is 100 times more fun than some piece of paper saying I have money in a bank.

    #6 12 years ago

    2020??? Arent you predicating a little too far ahead?

    #7 12 years ago
    Quoted from HighProtein:

    What B titles will rise the most ya think?

    T.S, J.M,

    #8 12 years ago

    I think these predictions are more apt for 2015, not 2020. I also think that if LED pins take off it will stunt the value growth of DMD/late 80s pins in the long run.

    Try not to speculate though.Thats what happened to the Real Estate Market and see how hosed everyone got there?

    #9 12 years ago

    Find a new bank...and still buy pins

    -1
    #10 12 years ago

    I would suspect that pin values will be down by 2020. Prices are crazy right now.

    #11 12 years ago

    Nothings gone down except the housing market (and even that depends on where you live). Pins won't go down either.

    #12 12 years ago
    Quoted from Kane:

    Nothings gone down except the housing market (and even that depends on where you live). Pins won't go down either.

    Muscle Cars are 1/2 what they were five years ago. I'm sure there are other examples but when you say "nothing", all i have to do is give one example to disprove you.

    My opinion is that pins are currently quite high in price because the people who played these a-list games were younger when they came out and couldn't afford them but now they can. Sooner or later, these people buying these now will get rid of them and the younger people who have no history playing them (because they are now in people's homes and not "in the wild") will not want them. As a result, they will be cheap. Just my take on that.

    #13 12 years ago
    Quoted from davewtf:

    younger people who have no history playing them

    I agree, soon all the people that remember them and want to recapture their youth will be satisfied with their collections, and being 32 I think there are not as many people younger than me that remember pins as fondly. What davewth said is right, I am just at the age where I have the money and space to start owning my own, but people younger than me will not be interested nearly as much. I was listening to a podcast today where two people in their late 20's totally dismissed pins, that generation that is going to want street fighter 2 hyper edition cabinets and be paying top dollar for them on craigslist soon enough.

    Also, I think a lot of people now are buying these pins with no intention of learning how to fix or give them any upkeep. They are going to get played for a bout a year, break down and sit in a rec room for 10 years and then turn around and be sold on craigslist.

    I think we could see a decline in value within 10 years.

    #14 12 years ago

    Definitely a decline coming. Not for a while, but eventually pins will be passed down to the next generation and they will likely be liquidated by family members who don't have room for them, can't maintain them, and need cash. Just like watching pawn stars and seeing people sell their priceless family treasures that have been in their families for years for $50.

    -1
    #15 12 years ago
    Quoted from davewtf:

    Muscle Cars are 1/2 what they were five years ago

    I concur. I have a friend in a camaro club, and they volunteer at mecum every year (Huge classic car auction), and I can attest that classic cars are selling for crap (talking nice 60's vettes going for $20-$30k).

    perhaps it's hard to compare (far more classic cars than pinballs), but same concept. Either people are going to get tired of paying high prices and refuse to pay, or people will get sick of paying out the nose for pinball and drop out of the hobby.

    -1
    #16 12 years ago

    Nothing goes down?

    Sports cards.. completely crashed
    Comic books.. gone down a ton
    Muscle cars.. gone down a lot
    Price of big screen tvs... a third of the price they were a few years ago
    Blu Ray Dvd players... used to be 200 bucks now 40
    Hell I even remember paying $60 for Super Techmo Bowl in the 80s and I can get a Wii game for less now.

    I can go on.

    -1
    #17 12 years ago

    I think that the 40-60 crowd which grew up hitting arcades will drive the pinball market.

    Once that age bracket moves on... your right pinball as we know it will change into something more interactive or become antiques because kids aren't growing up playing pinball like most older people did. The ones that see mine look at them like dinosaurs...I am serious

    Just my 2c

    #18 12 years ago

    Its sad really...you used to be able to go down to the gas station or any local bar and play pinball. I remember playing a lot at a 7-11 by y house. The good old days.

    #19 12 years ago

    Justin- did you get the wcs94?

    #20 12 years ago

    i am going to be turning 30 the end of the month, i will be one of the guys getting the clean up machines when the older generation passes on, that is if there is still parts avail

    #21 12 years ago

    I predict the market to have nose dived. I just can't predict when. there are simply too many factors to say, but it has a certain inevitability to it.

    You will have collectors who will have gotten to the point where maintaining their collections is too much work. These people with 10+, 50+, 100+ collections will end up letting them go at some point.

    The younger generation has less exposure to pinball and therefore less interest. While we are seeing many new collectors now, these things are becoming antiques. New collectors tend to be in their early thirties or older. They grew up with playing these machines. Now they have the funds as working adults to buy them. In 10 years, the people in their early thirties will probably not have ever seen a machine and are not going to just throw down the money and time to have one.

    Stern and JJP are making less machines now then B/W, DE, Gottlieb, and Alvin G were in the early 90's. There are fewer new machines to go around. Unless there is a resurgence in pinball (doubtful simply due to cost, maintenance, and the fall of arcades in western society) this trend will continue. As things become beyond repair due to parts scarcity there will be few newer machines to replace the ones that are beyond saving.

    Parts scarcity will lead to machines becoming impossible to fix. More popular platforms can be recreated a la rottendog or ipd, but lower end titles will end up falling by the wayside. As prices for working machines skyrocket the collector market will shrink. This in turn will hurt companies supplying parts. Further reducing what is being remade. The cost of parts will rise further shrinking the market as entry level collectors can no longer afford to keep their machines. this cycle will continue until the market dies out.

    Repo companies are small businesses. When they start retiring there is no guarantee that anyone will step in to fill the gap.

    #22 12 years ago

    No wcs yet Kurt...don't wanna drive too far unless its a good deal. I will have to practice patience and find one locally...but patience sucks. lol

    #23 12 years ago
    Quoted from HighProtein:

    Spider-Man will keep it's value and rise!
    Lord of the Rings will keep it's value and rise!

    I'm sure TSPP will keep its value and rise as well!!

    -1
    #24 12 years ago

    I just don't see licensed sterns keeping their value like the original Williams Bally titles have.

    #25 12 years ago
    Quoted from dvandentop:

    that is if there is still parts avail

    Quoted from dung:

    Parts scarcity will lead to machines becoming impossible to fix.

    So basically you are telling me that I need to go buy all the 50 cent parts I can, carefully store them and in 20 years I can sell them all for a premium and make the ultimate collection?!?!?!

    Think I need to go place an order.....

    #26 12 years ago
    Quoted from captainadam_21:

    Nothing goes down?

    Sports cards.. completely crashed
    Comic books.. gone down a ton
    Muscle cars.. gone down a lot
    Price of big screen tvs... a third of the price they were a few years ago
    Blu Ray Dvd players... used to be 200 bucks now 40
    Hell I even remember paying $60 for Super Techmo Bowl in the 80s and I can get a Wii game for less now.

    Those were the things I was going to mention. On the topic of pinball, if they are going to keep going up, why are we all not fighting over the EM pins? Not many want a room full of EM right now and the price shows it.

    I have two boys, one 13 and one 15. The 13 YO likes working and playing on them with me and always goes with me to Sealclubbers place. SC has a great modern collection. The 15 yo does not go to SC's place to play and does not play them at the house. If I see him in the room he is playing the Defender arcade. If it were my brother and I at that age we would have played for days.

    #27 12 years ago
    Quoted from dung:

    Stern and JJP are making less machines now then B/W, DE, Gottlieb, and Alvin G were in the early 90's. There are fewer new machines to go around. Unless there is a resurgence in pinball (doubtful simply due to cost, maintenance, and the fall of arcades in western society) this trend will continue. As things become beyond repair due to parts scarcity there will be few newer machines to replace the ones that are beyond saving.

    thanks dung. really 'f'ing' positive. go fly a tree up a kite.

    #28 12 years ago
    Quoted from kwiKimart:

    I'm sure TSPP will keep its value and rise as well!!

    i still don't understand the thought involved in the upper left playfield mb flipper mode. its basically the worst and tightest shot in most machines ever. that's why i'll never ever consider this an 8 out of 10 machine. 7 tops. nothing personal quiki..but this machine blew it there. i love the simpons too, this machine kills the DE machine...but just that upper playfield...uggg. reminds me of the annoying stewie MB in family guy, as comparing apples to apples.

    but being that it's the simpons 'best' pinball machine ever, you are probably right regarding the cost of it. i'll give this machine that

    #29 12 years ago
    Quoted from dung:

    Parts scarcity will lead to machines becoming impossible to fix

    Quoted from dung:

    Repo companies are small businesses. When they start retiring there is no guarantee that anyone will step in to fill the gap

    For the popular titles, I believe there will always be some interest in making replacement parts if the demand is there (and it doesn't have to be small business, it can be some hobbyist that decided he needed replacement ramps, so he made his own replacements, and decides to sell to others). Space shuttle is a great example of this, that japanese astronaut wasn't happy with touching his playfield up, so he recreated it in illustrator by hand.

    Quoted from dung:

    lower end titles will end up falling by the wayside

    Will I see replacement ramps for a grand lizard pinball? No way. Will I see replacement ramps for an adam's family in 10 years? Pretty sure.

    #30 12 years ago

    Pinball machines as an investment is unwise.They depreciate just like cars.Everybody always get less when they sell a car or a pinball machine.Restorers of both can sell high based on their work/reputation,but this is only for a handful of folks.Take your restored pin/car and try to sell it for what you put into it.......it never happens.Scott

    -1
    #31 12 years ago
    Quoted from captainadam_21:

    Nothing goes down?
    Sports cards.. completely crashed
    Comic books.. gone down a ton
    Muscle cars.. gone down a lot
    Price of big screen tvs... a third of the price they were a few years ago
    Blu Ray Dvd players... used to be 200 bucks now 40
    Hell I even remember paying $60 for Super Techmo Bowl in the 80s and I can get a Wii game for less now.
    I can go on.

    Let's make it an even "closer to home" comparison:
    Arcade Vids

    The high prices we are seeing on pins now will not hold...they simply can't. Other than a few of the highest priced "holy grail" machines, I'm pretty sure we are heading for a crash in the next few years too. Either that or this hobby becomes a rich-guy only club, and I don't think there is enough interest at that income level to keep it going.

    -1
    #32 12 years ago
    Quoted from practicalsteve:

    So basically you are telling me that I need to go buy all the 50 cent parts I can, carefully store them and in 20 years I can sell them all for a premium and make the ultimate collection?!?!?!

    Think I need to go place an order.....

    Like any investment, storage costs will likely outweigh any money you might make in the long run.

    Quoted from toyotaboy:

    dung said:
    lower end titles will end up falling by the wayside

    Will I see replacement ramps for a Grand Lizard pinball? No way. Will I see replacement ramps for an adam's family in 10 years? Pretty sure.

    Ramps are the least of your concern. Ramps stored in the right environment will remain in the same condition.

    The electronics that drive the board won't. Popular games will get aftermarket support to an extent. Boards that are difficult to reverse engineer won't be. Boards specific to a small number of unpopular games won't be.

    Who is going to take the time to repoduce the boards for alvin g games when they start failing? Do you think there are going to be collectors lining up to pay the equivalent of 400-500 dollars to get a replacement driver board for al's garage band? Pistol Poker? Sure some might be willing if they love the game or just want a complete collection, but many will end up like gameplans today where they sit dead or parted out and their pf's hung on a wall as decoration.

    Gene is looking at making kingpin which requires reverse engineering capcom's boards since parts are unavailable. If that is done there will be a replacement for capcoms except breakshot which has a few unique parts. Who will step up to recreate a board for a game with sub 1k production?

    Quoted from Ballsofsteel:

    thanks dung. really 'f'ing' positive. go fly a tree up a kite.

    You want to see the nice rosy side of things. I want to be realistic. It is a fun hobby, but these are piss poor investments. We are able to enjoy these oversized toys today because of people who have made a living reproducing parts and selling nos parts. Once they are gone our ships are sunk, period. There is nothing to say anyone will fill their place after they go, or that others will step up when new electronics need to be designed.

    Enjoy your games while they last. I am under no delusion that when I am 70 that they will still work. if I want that kind of guarantee I will go buy an em and hoard all the mechanical parts I could ever want.

    #33 12 years ago

    I never bought my machines as a investment. I just have to live with what the prices are at that given time.

    -1
    #34 12 years ago

    I look at EMs and think that the same thing is going to happen to SS machines, just a question of when. As interest declines, prices do too.

    #35 12 years ago

    What a necessary thread. My two cents is that certain trends in the market are driving up dmd prices in a bubble. The belief Sterns are not high quality, for instance, is a common belief that drives up the price of restored Williams games. Yet so few even fully restored pinballs sell for the price of a nib. Just like cars, the people who will lose the most money in the crash are people who paid full price for varying quality restorations on the very best games, or natural depreciation on nib. That's also where the most money is being made in the aftermarket right now. If there was enough money in it, Stern could just buy rights and make repros, thus limiting the top end price of any particular game. But theres a larger market with more money in making all new games for them.

    I think prices mentioned on this forum are often high and could create a mentality where people start sitting on, demanding high prices for junk machines. Sadly local sellers use Internet pricing to reference their sale prices. It's hard to explain to someone that the machine for sale on eBay for two thousand is an unshopped scam.

    #36 12 years ago

    sentiment seems to be prices are too high. I want them to drop so I can buy more pins. Anyone else seem to find an error in this logic

    #37 12 years ago

    How about having someone over at your place to play your games.....then the inevitable "what's one of these cost?" questions.

    #38 12 years ago

    When the market declines which seems likely it will only be the really popular titles in good condition that will command a premium. I play and buy pins for fun and for the buzz. If I were collecting to try and make money, I would buy the A titles in excellent condition and those with the lowest production runs.

    #39 12 years ago
    Quoted from the96stang:

    Thats where ive put my money. Ive paid 1200 for all of my pins. (500 in Tee'd Off.) Id value my collection at roughly 7 grand. That's my post college fund so I can get an apartment. This investment is 100 times more fun than some piece of paper saying I have money in a bank.

    Awesome, exactly and working on them is a skill.

    #40 12 years ago
    Quoted from MMuller:

    HighProtein said:What B titles will rise the most ya think?
    T.S, J.M,

    TS & JM are bobo licenses but high quality games.
    They'll be close to 2000 in decent shape by the end of this decade for sure.

    #41 12 years ago
    Quoted from captainadam_21:

    Nothing goes down?
    Sports cards.. completely crashed
    Comic books.. gone down a ton
    Muscle cars.. gone down a lot
    Price of big screen tvs... a third of the price they were a few years ago
    Blu Ray Dvd players... used to be 200 bucks now 40
    Hell I even remember paying $60 for Super Techmo Bowl in the 80s and I can get a Wii game for less now.
    I can go on.

    You can?

    I think you pretty much nailed it!

    #42 12 years ago
    Quoted from davewtf:

    I would suspect that pin values will be down by 2020. Prices are crazy right now.

    Based on what?
    -Pinflation is in direct result of Inflation as well as supply/demand factors.
    -Every year many people that grew up enjoying pinball realize that they would
    rather have a few 1000 dollars in pinball than in a damn bank earning nothing.
    -Pinball machines are liquid assets folks (unlike houses or cars).
    -There is no evidence that we going into pindeflation anytime soon.

    Prices are actually not crazy right now as crazy would be them flying higher more quickly than this.

    #43 12 years ago
    Quoted from davewtf:

    Kane said:Nothings gone down except the housing market (and even that depends on where you live). Pins won't go down either.
    Muscle Cars are 1/2 what they were five years ago. I'm sure there are other examples but when you say "nothing", all i have to do is give one example to disprove you.
    My opinion is that pins are currently quite high in price because the people who played these a-list games were younger when they came out and couldn't afford them but now they can. Sooner or later, these people buying these now will get rid of them and the younger people who have no history playing them (because they are now in people's homes and not "in the wild") will not want them. As a result, they will be cheap. Just my take on that.

    Sooner or later isn't 10 years, its more like 20 or 30 years from now.
    People buying pinball machines are from 30 to 60 years old.
    The 30 year olds (like myself) are the last ones that have fond memories of pinball in arcades.
    They are also more likely they are able to afford them as they wise up on economics (I've studied it for 10 years personally).
    Those the own houses full out don't have to worry about selling their pins for
    their missed mortgage payments, many of the 40+ year olds are in that situation I meet.
    There will be no cheap Addams Family or Twilight Zone anytime soon.

    #44 12 years ago
    Quoted from toyotaboy:

    davewth said:Muscle Cars are 1/2 what they were five years ago
    I concur. I have a friend in a camaro club, and they volunteer at mecum every year (Huge classic car auction), and I can attest that classic cars are selling for crap (talking nice 60's vettes going for $20-$30k).
    perhaps it's hard to compare (far more classic cars than pinballs), but same concept. Either people are going to get tired of paying high prices and refuse to pay, or people will get sick of paying out the nose for pinball and drop out of the hobby.

    Pinball machines are not anywhere near like Muscle cars folks.
    Pinball machines require no taxes or registrations on sales, no gas to use, no insane amount of space to store and no insurance to use.
    Horrible analogy, horrible one.
    Pinball can only be compared to pinball.

    -1
    #45 12 years ago
    Quoted from captainadam_21:

    Nothing goes down?
    Sports cards.. completely crashed
    Comic books.. gone down a ton
    Muscle cars.. gone down a lot
    Price of big screen tvs... a third of the price they were a few years ago
    Blu Ray Dvd players... used to be 200 bucks now 40
    Hell I even remember paying $60 for Super Techmo Bowl in the 80s and I can get a Wii game for less now.
    I can go on.

    Nobody on here said nothing goes down.
    Lets get real people...
    We can not compare cars, technology, Ink on pieces of cardboard
    or ink on pieces of paper stapled together to pinball machines folks.
    Technological advances bring the cost of technology down, yeah, that's a given.
    What technological advance could bring the price of pinball down?
    It primarily is mechanical and if it is LCD or DMD, its a damn machine.

    #46 12 years ago
    Quoted from DougPiranha:

    I think that the 40-60 crowd which grew up hitting arcades will drive the pinball market.
    Once that age bracket moves on... your right pinball as we know it will change into something more interactive or become antiques because kids aren't growing up playing pinball like most older people did. The ones that see mine look at them like dinosaurs...I am serious
    Just my 2c

    Thats something I can speak about.
    I go to an arcade, enjoy the hell out of spider-man, show half a dozen kids how
    full multi-ball is and they have no interest, they like the shiny lights and sounds
    of the big Terminator Salvation game or the driving games.
    Kinda sad to be but we live in a free will universe afterall...

    #47 12 years ago

    I think he's comparing it because its something you collect and its a hobby - they have that in common - just like the other items, cards, comics etc.

    #48 12 years ago
    Quoted from HighProtein:

    Nobody on here said nothing goes down.

    Oh really?

    Quoted from Kane:

    Nothings gone down except the housing market

    #49 12 years ago

    Another common trait is they only made so many of them and the numbers will only dwindle over time. I imagine a few machines are destroyed each year by disaster alone besides how many were destroyed intentionally over the years just like cars, cards, comics etc.

    It is very hard to say what will happen to pinball prices in the years to come. As mentioned, it all boils down to demand, if the demand is low, prices will adjust. If Pinball were to make a strong resurgence over the next 5 years then, demand would dictate the prices.

    Buy them to have fun, money is much more enjoyable when you can do something with it anytime you feel like. They may go up or down, time will tell, it has little bearing as if the market is low that means you can buy low, if the market is high you will have to buy high. It does seem unlikely that they will plummet to a fraction of today's prices but anything is possible so their is some risk, part of the fun

    Find what you like, enjoy them and pass the art and history on to others. You never know what will happen, 20 years, 50...100?? They may be lost completely or they may breed an entire new generation of entertainment. One thing is certain, pinball must evolve just like any other business.

    Pinball is social, it brings people together, the intrinsic value is immeasurable. Love the game, your friends and family, Merry Christmas to all!!!

    #50 12 years ago

    I'm loving this thread, great topic.

    The conventional wisdom seems to be that the current prices are a result of those that grew up in the pinball glory days getting old enough to have significant buying power...and that makes sense. My question is, how do we define that generation and what does it tell us about when the bubble will pop? Let's say that the average age of a buyer right now is 45. People increase wealth and buying power as they get closer to retirement, the kids leave the house, etc., so, leaving all else aside, if that's the main driver it'll be some years before the market will take a turn for the worse.

    That's leaving all else aside, of course, and there are many forces at work on this market. I still see a possibility where, in the short term, prices get even higher. If prices are this high in a down economy, what will they be if there's significant economic recovery over the next five years? Demand for the hobby wouldn't likely shift that rapidly.

    I'm also curious as to how the market would shift based on the health of Stern and JJP. If we end up with no manufacturers, does the scarcity issue keep prices on old machines high, or does it sound the death knell for the whole hobby? If both are successful and we have a renaissance, does the influx of new technology and quality machines bring the prices on old machines down, or does it bring with it lots of new buyers that keep demand high? The sports card and comic book references from earlier in the thread are a possible indicator -- prices fell because they were overproduced when collecting became a fad in the 80s. However, for comics, at least, the scarce copies from the 30s-60s remain in high demand.

    No predictions, here, just enjoying the conversation.

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