Stern has a lineup coming and the ability to deliver the at price that others can't. 2017 is likely to be Stern's best year ever.

When people started breaking down what those numbers would actually mean, it didn't add up. They could definitely have 80% of the market though. Stern has a near monopoly, even with all the newcomers popping up.

Here's the thing to really consider though. Stern is selling more than ever, and 2017 should continue that trend; but they are losing some marketshare. JJP is growing, Spooky is on solid footing, Multimorphic is ready to roll, and other companies are making serious progress at becoming a viable option. Due to an expanded market, Stern is selling more, but they've gone from 100% of market down to something noticeably smaller.

If the market ever contracts, that loss of marketshare will be more problematic, but if pinball stays this hot, there's room for everybody to do well.

I think that JJP is going to be ok if things contract. They've carved out a good share of the market. If Dialed In is a major hit, and the next game does well, they've managed to shift a lot of dollars and loyalty their way. That's a couple of big ifs, especially at their asking price, but they have done a great job at solidifying themselves.

I think Spooky will stick around too. When the wait list for their games is double their production number, they're in a good spot. Add in the contract work that they do, I think it would be tough to run them out of the industry.

The other companies...yeah, they're on more shaky ground.

DI is a MUCH better game though. The theme will always draw in the first quarter drop, but the gameplay will dictate every one after.

DI is not priced for location success, however. They'll have some out there, because we do see WoZ and TH in the wild, but at the extra cost, I don't see it being nearly as common. It has a lot of potential in the home market though. It will outsell Alien simply because Heighway doesn't have the ability to scale up to what JJP can do.

Both games have pretty big limiting factors for huge sales numbers, but JJP has a much better path for their game being a financial success. Neither one has the potential of an average Stern release at this point though.

I was a double digit collector in my 20s, but games were also less than half the price that they are now. In one day I got SM, AFM, and WCS all in excellent condition...all for about the price of just what SMVE goes for now. It's absolutely crazy what has happened with pricing.

The first time I played Aerosmith it felt like I had played it already though. The samey nature of the designs (particularly Borg's designs) are making it much harder to justify the cost of entry. Aerosmith is a literal remix of Borg's games with nothing new brought to the table. Not a bad game, but I honestly felt like I had played it many times before right from the get go. So if the new games are going to feel run of the mill, might as well lean on the classics at half the cost.