Market goes up has to come down

Hello Art, great story. I agree what goes up may eventually come down, but there are some interesting factors driving prices at moment. None are permanent, but at the moment very powerful.
Baby boomer/GenX effect - buying power.
The covid effect - investing in home amenities.
Resurgence of arcade games across locations.

The up side to your beanie baby factor is that they might be attracting all the attention and $ away from the more simple games you'd be in the market for. The newer the game, the more complex the rule sets and more high-tech. Someone may correct me, but I'd roughly state that every decade the games seem to step into a slightly more advanced era. '70s being a lot of classic target chasing and simple rules of mostly mechanical machines. Ie scoring is based on how long you can keep hitting stuff. '80s getting more electronics and complex rule sets (hit 3 of these then hit that one over there then up the ramp for big points). '90s started to see bi-level fields and small digital screens adding to the attraction and often included mini arcade style games on them initiated by target sequences. You get the idea--not much different than cars and washing machines. Being relatively new to 'the sport' myself, I have come to realize there is probably a game out there for everyone. TONS of themes from airplanes, motorcycles, gambling, bar-brawls, poker, golf, theme parks, movies, TV, etc. Today, most owners are far more conscious of care and upkeep of their machines. Many are restored and well kept so the value is probably there. On that note, you can probably find a copy of that old Force II to fit your budget: 1) a nice clean well oiled machine, or 2) a not-so-nice copy that still plays well, or 3) one that's not working at all, and you can tinker on with the grandkids. Keep your eyes open. You're at the dance seeking the homely girl in the corner being ignored. She might turn out to be a fire-cracker a really good cook!

Hi Brobra , I think you exactly right about GenX they certainly have more money than us Baby Boomers had. It would cost me 10 cents one dime to play a 5 ball pinball machine in the late 50s. I used to round up pop bottles 2cent per bottle and return them to the store so I could play.
Covid has had a lot to do with people looking for entertainment while stuck in the house.
Take care and keep the ball in play.

Hogzillaman, It’s not about simple games as you call it over more complex and high tech it’s about dollar and cents. The new games the High tech movie theme, Rock & Roll machines with their plastic toys and royalty fees are costing collectors money and putting it in the pockets of movie producers and Rock stars while costing you the buyer's in the collectors market while driving up the prices on the 10, 20, 30, 40 year old machines Which I believe to be ridiculous. It’s not about my budget These older machines break down need repair and as the adds say shows some ware has scuffs and don’t forget the 30 and 40 year ware on parts. How your 20 year old computer is it running today or is it at the dump. These old machines are not worth the money! they will break down and cost you more and the new machines one year warranty speaks for itself.
Hogzillaman, It’s all about the money. I made mine the old fashion way I earned it, and it let me retire after 30 years of working at the age of 50. It is not about budget to me it’s about value for the money and I don’t believe the older machines are worth what the sellers are asking. I collect old cars and trucks from the 40s & 50s and 60s and what I have learn from that is people who restore one they over spend and when it comes time for them to sell they lose money or keep it.
Good Luck to you.

I do agree that the new high tech pinball machines have had effect on the older models but if you take into account the older machine that have been “shopped and refurbished” that some parts have been replaced and other are working at the time of inspection and the game shows ware Your still buying used 10, 20, 30, and 40 year old machine that most likely come out of a arcade, store, gas, station and had a lot of play before someone bought it for home use. Most new machine are bought for home use value is higher because of low play and condition on resale. Old machine’s that just what they are and everyone should know what happens with heat and electronic stuff over time. My opinion the older machines on Pinside are not worth the price even if you do your own repair work. Good story Art

I think the opposite - prices were too low for too long. Prices may come down a bit but don't kid yourself, they aren't coming back to where they were. Replacement costs of new machines and prices paid for these now will keep them higher permanently. I also see new generations of players coming in and kids in their 20's playing regularly. I never dreamed of owning machines as a kid, the next generation of players see it as likely when they have the money. Having $10,000 pins in your house is "normal".

There's also the general inflation factor. $1 today is not equal to $1 yesterday and if you look at the money supply the printers are working overtime right now. The price of EVERYTHING is going up and not going back down without some serious air let out of this bubble.

Continuous changes in technologies are inevitable. AR & VR augmented reality and virtual reality are the future of the whole entertainment industry. When VR Virtual reality comes it will dominate the gaming dollar. History has shown us that pinball manufactures have had there ups and downs. For decades, three companies — Bally, Gottlieb, and Williams made pinball games. But all three companies have either gone out of business or stopped producing pinball games. Gary Sterns still producing pinballs that his father Samuel started. Gary was quoted as saying in Parade magazine that “the economics of starting a pinball company today wouldn’t make sense.”
All I am saying right now you have some people making money by buying and selling they are driving the market holding the machines some still in boxes till the production run has been completed and then selling for thousands more than the manufactures price. Stopping some collectors from buying new and that drives up prices for the older machines which become over inflated and when the bubble burst a lot of people lose. 10 ,20, 30, and 40 year old electronic bringing 5, 6, 7, 8 thousand. PT Barnum said "You can fool most of the people most of the time" Good Luck

I need to clarify this:
Someone above said that gen x has more money to play with than baby boomers. Adjusted for inflation? I think not.
You see, we gen x kids weren’t able to go to a Ford dealer and buy a new Mustang for $2,500 in our early twenties, a base model was $15,000, in 1993, a bit impossible when earning $4.25 an hour, just as impossible as it was to do it on the $1.25 minimum wage in the mid to late 1960’s. Kids today are making $14.00 an hour (Using “walmart now hiring starting at. $14/hr” signs as a reference) and you might squeeze a base model 2021 Mustang for $36,000. Later in life, my grandfather, Dad, and eventually me were able to afford a new car.
I use this one item as a reference point but you can see the disposable income logic falls out the window when you look closer at it. Me, as a gen x kid collected comics, video games, and muscle cars that our parents disposed of when the oil embargoes occurred. My dad collected older cars from the 1950’s (and early 70’s muscle cars later in life) radios, watches, and antique fishing gear and boat motors.
My grandfather (turned 98 in 2021) collected allied WWII memorabilia, silver coins, model A and T cars and Ford 8N tractors, he also loved really old ham radios and TV’s, mainly buying them and fixing them.
Three generations and we all had an expensive disposable income hobby. This may not apply to everyone everywhere, but we all know hoarders and collectors from all age generations.
Considering that a Big Mac is not 2 for a dollar anymore or $1.99 each, it’s $3.99, pinball prices are still pretty good. EM machines regularly sell for well under $1200, which is in some cases less than what they sold for new without adjusting for inflation.
An example: Gottlieb’s Jet Spin, Price to operator: $1295 FOB in August 1977.
Adjusted for inflation: $5,861.91
Makes your $6200 Led Zeppelin look like good value in comparison!
Pinball as a collectible has not seen an inflation spike in forever, until recently.
There are additional factors:
Yes the beanie baby hoarders are out there snapping up machines, burying them in sheds and basements hoping for a huge spike in price to “get rich quick”. More casual people are getting into the hobby because of the not too distant lockdowns and because they are being priced out of other hobbies by blue chip investors controlling every major collector industry.
Then there are flippers, buy low sell high, profiteers looking to turn anything into money.
Gameplay quality as well as Boom and wow factor increase value. Mix in your daily dose of nostalgia, it’s movie, music, or TV tie in theme, add on celebrity names and it all increases the value to levels bordering on stupidity.
Some designers have become celebrities.
How much that celebrity name is worth is how much you and everyone else are willing to spend to own that thing with that name.
Whirlwind was plentiful and cheap for years until this past year, when investors and flippers saw that celebrity name: Pat Lawlor. Now it’s stupid expensive. Goodbye good frustrating common game hello “collectors item key game holy grail blue chip investment.
It’s sad but we will lose a few games to them.

It really was the pinball collectors keeping the market prices low, selling and trading for years amongst ourselves. Nobody outside the hobby knew or cared that pinball was an ongoing hobby.
We let the flippers and investors in. When I sold my pinball collection in 2015, the only people who responded were other fellow pinball geeks and nerds, and it took a while to sell, they wanted to inspect it and play it to see if they really wanted it. Today, if I advertised a Twilight zone for $5000, my phone would explode with flippers demanding I sell to them sight unseen, RIGHT NOW!!!! Then they’d offer $1000 less when they arrive to take it away.
Pandora’s box, we let them into the hobby, good luck putting them back in the box.
Sorry I wrote too much again… people don’t want intelligent conversation just boom boom instant gratification.

Great comments and fun to read.

I am a relative newcomer into this hobby at the age of 60 (now 62...). 2 1/2 years ago I bought my first- NIB BM66, which is still my favorite. I decided to build up my collection by buying affordable $2-$3 K machines- all BW 90s games as well as a Baywatch.

Then I transitioned to buying new games- mostly Sterns, but also GNR and Houdini. I am much more interested in game play than having a trophy pin (nothing wrong with a trophy pin- they are beautiful and great to play, but price can get crazy).

Are the prices high? Well yes, but definitely within the economies of supply and demand. My biggest gripe about that is less number of younger folks can afford a home game. They have to take time away from their young families and play at a bar/arcade.

Now I am selling off most of my 90s games. They are not as reliable and not as interesting/fun. Yeah I will probably make some $ off of them, but not a fortune. I would rather someone else enjoy and play them as I spend most of my time on the newer games.

As a semiretired baby boomer with some discretionary income I am fortunate to be able to buy pinball machines. The long delays and high demand are annoying. Trying to buy a topper at MSRP is impossible. But I still love the hobby and have made great friends- priceless.

Great observations, Art and a great discussion starter. I really appreciate all the responses you got. I think it's a really thoughtful discussion.

One thing I'd also point out is the difference between EMs and modern machines. The costs are so much more accessible to acquire EMs vs new machines, whether you're on a budget, new to the hobby, etc. I think gameplay on an EM is also more accessible for kids or those new to the hobby and can be its own reward or can be a gateway to more complex and much more expensive machines.

Bill

My post just disappeared. Nice!!